I thought I should repeat my investment advice of December as I see it as likely to be even more exceptional at this point. So here it is again..
Bitcoin and Ethereum.. Probability that it will explode.. go up 300% or more in the next 12 months, is now like 90%. And yes, 10% it could go badly, so don’t go way overboard on it. FYI, since I recommended doing this in December they are up a good 50% year to date.
Gold and silver and gold and silver mining stocks. For like 10 years now they have been rigging.. depressing the prices of these assets, but I think things are going to change so I would definitely have some of this.
As to the stock market, I believe it is truly overpriced at this point so I would be careful about any money you have in it.
Ted’s Blog
I believe we are entering a severe recession and quite possibly a depression. Now I know that this not what you are being told and not what the numbers and the stock market are saying. Best I can tell is that the government is lying to us, bigtime, rigging both the inflation rate and the economic growth rate (the CPI) and also using printed money to support the stock market, and that this will eventually fail and be very bad.
Here is why I say this. Look at what we know is now bad..
- 40% of Americans have maxed out their credit cards. They can’t borrow more, but are faced with interest rates on those balances of something like 22%.
- On prices, do you think they’re only up 19% in the last 4 years? Especially on what we really need to buy?
- Huge numbers of home mortgages are entering default.
- Huge numbers of commercial mortgages are in default.
- Most of our banks are bankrupt due to loading up on 2 -3% treasuries, commercial mortgages, and also home mortgages. Do you really think the Fed can continue to bail them out?
- The federal government has massive unpaid debt and continues to spent trillions more than they take in every year.. and so much of it is spent in really bad.. really unproductive.. ways.
- Many of our big cities are facing really big debt problems.
- Other countries won’t be helping us. Did you know that over 70 countries currencies are facing collapse?
- Lastly, here’s something I’ve seen personally. I have a small wholesale company selling to about 55 California convenient stores attached to the really big gas stations. And it’s reached a point where virtually every one of them are telling us that their sales have crashed. No dropped. Crashed!
As to what I’m investing in, I continue to invest in Bitcoin and Ethereum, gold and silver, and gold and silver miners. They’ve been rigging the gold and silver prices for the last 15 years but the odds are that they won’t be able to continue and that the prices will explode.
On Bitcoin and Ethereum when I first invested 3 ½ years ago at about 9,000 for Bitcoin and Ethereum at about 400, I said that there was a 70% chance of them exploding in price and a 30% chance I’d lose most on my money. Here we are 3 ½ years later and I’ve made 450% on that money and believe the odds going forward are about the same.. say 80% chance prices will explode from here and 20% chance you’ll lost most of your money
As to what you should do.. some gold and silver and gold and silver mining stocks for sure. As to Bitcoin and Ethereum, I leave that up to you.
The Real Keys to a Happy and Successful Life
One of my grandsons graduated college a couple of weeks ago and I felt it was a great opportunity to share with him what I felt was the most important advice I could possible give him.. the real keys to a happy and successful life Something he was very unlikely to have been told during his years in school.
Well it turned out that he indeed had never been told any of this and was truly very happy that I shared this with him.
In doing this I was reminded that very few kids are given this critical information so I thought I would give it to you again so that you may share it with those you care about.
I will also remind you that my website has a free 40 minute course on this subject so you might also want to pass that link on, too. The link is..
http://moneysmartonline.com/courses/
As to the real keys to a happy and successful life here they are. To succeed, you have to do all 10 and anyone can do that. All 10 are very doable if you set your mind to it.
The Real Keys to a Happy and Successful Life
#1- Never trade away what matters most in life (your health, your relationships and liking
what you do with your days) for money, power, possessions or status
#2.. Take good care of your health, invest in and cherish good relationships
#3- Work at something you like
#4- Always maintain a positive attitude and always believe in yourself
#5- Be disciplined.. do what you said you have to do to get what you said you wanted
#6- Always treat others as you wish to be treated
#7- Be willing to take chances, but always do your homework very thoroughly before you do
#8- Minimize making the same mistake twice
#9- Have a written plan for your money and your life
#10- Learn now to successfully manage your money.. and do it yourself
It’s been quite a while since I’ve sent out a blog but the time has come where I feel I must do so. I also believe this blog is the most important one I’ve ever done and that it’s critical that everyone read it. When you do, please remember that I am usually a positive, not a negative person, but sometimes the truth is far from positive. We are in far more dangerous financial times than you are being led to believe and it’s critical that you understand the lies being told, the true state of things, and the things you need to do to protect yourself and those dear to you
I will start by laying out the truth as to the problems we’re now facing, then get into some of the things you can do to help yourself in dealing with them.
Lie #1- Inflation this year is not the 7% they’re saying. It’s a totally rigged number! The real rate is about double that. Think about the price increases you’ve seen. 7%? No way. They admit gas is up 58% and used car prices up 37%, but claim food is 6%, etc. Do you believe that? I am not alone on this. Google it and you will see that a number of honest and capable experts believe as I do, that the real inflation rate is in the neighborhood of 14-15%. And it sure ain’t “transitory”.
Lie #2.. That we have only 4% unemployment. Their unemployed number is 10 million people, but 18.8 million are currently receiving unemployment checks from the government. How blatant is that lie. Think about it. 40% of small businesses are gone, 200,000 more than normal, but employment is up?
Lie #3- That the stock market is fairly priced and is a sound investment. The truth is that it is way overpriced and is so primarily from the trillions of dollars they printed and gave to the banks and the big companies to buy back their stocks.. also from the absurdly low interest rates and the inflation they’ve created.
Lie #4- that the economy is growing. They claim a growth rate of 6.9%, using their 7% inflation rate. When you use the more realistic rate of about 14-15% what you get is a negative growth rate of 7-8%.. that the economy has entered a recession.
Lie #5- That the government has things under control. At this point we have massive and essentially unpayable debt.. massive debt at the federal level and for a lot of the states, the terribly underfunded pension funds at both state and federal level, terribly underfunded Social Security, massive corporate debt, massive and potentially unpayable consumer debt.. a trillion+ in student debt, massive credit card debt, and so on. Over 50% of adults today do not have $1000 in the bank. Over 50% of those over 50 today will never be able to retire.
The government is now in a lose-lose situation. Don’t raise interest rates and inflation continues to roar. Raise the rate a little and it solves nothing. Raise them closer to where they should be and it will crash the economy.. stocks, real estate, jobs.. all of it.. and the government would be bankrupt.. utterly unable to repay their debt, pay the social security they owe, the retirements, and so on.
So what happens if those loaning all this money decide the rate is way too low? That the risk of default has become too high? Some of the world’s governments are starting to decide this, and are selling our currency rather than buying it.
We are now facing a real and growing risk that huge defaults will indeed happen. And when they do, things will almost certainly become very bad. It is a fact that if the rate was anything like normal, the federal government would absolutely be bankrupt. Everything would crash.. the stock markets of the world, banks will fail in waves, the dollar will drop drastically in value.. maybe 70-80%, maybe more. Most pensions will become either unpayable or will be paid 50 cents on the dollar or less. Jobs will be lost in massive amounts, crime will explode as people who can’t eat need to find a way to do so.
Now let me stop for a minute and repeat something. I am NOT a negative person, This risk is now very real. If you wish to learn more, there are 2 people worth listening to. Go to YouTube and watch a couple of the recent videos of Jeremiah Babe and Gregory Mannarino.
So there’s the problem. The question is what can you do to protect yourself.
Here are some things to consider:
Spending.. Cut back on optional spending as much as you reasonably can.
Pay off high interest debt.. but when it comes to a low interest mortgage leave it alone, as you’re likely to make money on it.. that inflation will more than make up for the interest you’ll pay.
Investing.. We are now in a time where pretty much nothing is risk free. The best bet, if you have it, is to be getting rental income from a residential (not a commercial) property. You might also invest some of your free cash in an ETF with the symbol RJA. It’s an ETF of commodities and is likely to protect the cash you put into it. Other than that it’s a tough situation as nothing is risk free. What I am doing, and what I believe you definitely should do, is to have some gold and silver coins in your possession and perhaps investing some in silver and gold miners.. symbols SIL and NUGT.
The other thing to consider is possibly buying some Bitcoin and Ethereum.. a high risk/high reward investment.
When I first invested in them 21 months ago I estimated that there was a 70% chance of a very big return and a 30% chance I’d lose a lot of that money. At this point, despite the big drop of the last 6 months I’ve made 700% on that money.
So how do I feel now? My numbers haven’t changed.. 70% chance it will double or triple going forward, 30% chance I will lose a lot, perhaps most, of that money.
Whether you should do any of this is up to you. The problem is that, as I see it, risk is now unavoidable, as all the normal investment alternatives have way too high a probability of major losses.. stocks especially, plus real estate is now too overvalued and fixed income a pretty sure loss from continuing inflation.
So there are my thoughts at this time.
I wish you the best..
Ted
P.S. You also should consider going to my public service website.. www.moneysmartonline.com. Everything is 100% free and I’ve provided some great courses on how you can manage your money yourself and way better that 95% of the professionals. As for my credentials on this, as part of the creation of the MoneySmart project I wrote a book, MoneySmart, that was voted “Best Personal Finance Book of the Year” in 2014.
For what it’s worth I thought I’d share my thoughts.
As background, you should know that, as a hired gun stock investor from 1990 to 2000, I was able to both invest people’s money very successfully and also to call every major move of the stock and real estate markets from 1990 to 2008. Since then, however, I have been completely unable to do so and the reason as I see it is that we have had a rigged market since 2008.
Over 75% of all stock purchases since 2008 have been companies buying back their own stock, often using debt.. printed money.. to do so.
Lately, I believe I’m beginning to be able to call things again, as since Jan 1st I’m up 9% while the S&P is down 29%.. a 38% difference.
I believe we are facing a greater than 50% probability that we are entering no less than a depression.. a very bad thing for the stock market, the real estate market and, most importantly, for people’s jobs and lives.
Given this, I am and will be shorting. I’ve stuck to a huge position in gold, silver, and gold and silver miners stocks. The miner stocks, in particular, have been decimated.. down about 40%, YTD. I believe, however, that the reason is massive market rigging by the big banks and the government to suppress the prices of those metals as they would otherwise undermine their interests. I do believe, however, that time is running out for them and when it does that gold and silver will skyrocket.
So there are my thoughts at this time. I hope it helps.
Thanks to all for supporting the launch of my Money Smart on-line personal finance courses. Although we’ve been able to help quite a few people, I’ve decided to go all out and from now on have all of the courses be 100% free.
If you haven’t already done so, please go to the website, http://moneysmartonline.com/ and check them out when you have time. Also, please tell everyone about them. You’ll be doing them a big favor if you do.
You almost never have anyone advising you about personal money management without a vested interest and I don’t have any. Wouldn’t manage your money if you begged me to. Been there and done that.
Provided below is a brief explanation as to why these courses are so critically important for most people.
It’s time for a Real Education in Personal Money Management.. time to make your money work for You!
I’m gonna start with a question. What did you ever learn in school about personal money management that you were able to use in your life? Spending, saving investing and such.. Nothing, right? If that’s your answer, you’re far from alone. I’ve asked that question of hundreds of people and always the same answer. Nothing.
It was the same for me. Graduated from a top 20 university, major in economics, minor in business, and yet everything I learned I learned the hard way, from trial and error in the real world.. 78 years of it. I’ve got the scars to show for it and, thankfully, the success.
For most people, however, not having a real life understanding of personal money management has been nothing short of disastrous. Look at the results..
- 2 people in 3 over 50 today cannot, will not, be able to retire.. 667,000 out of every 1 million people! What are they gonna do? Work at Walmart till they drop? Live in their kid’s basement?
- Most Americans are now living paycheck to paycheck! 7 in 10 don’t even have $1000 in the bank! Think of the stress whenever something happens, and it always does… a car repair, a medical bill, God forbid a job loss!
- Money is now the #1 cause of unhappiness in our society today.. the #1 cause of divorce!
And how about the stress. How often does money create a lot of stress in our lives?
If some of this applies to you, if you’re like most people, concerned about your future, not getting what you’ve worked for, what you deserve, you’re far from alone.
So why has this happened? The answer’s simple. It’s what I said at the start, that nobody ever gave you a real world education regarding money. Nobody ever told you what to do and how to do it.
But what about the internet? It can be such an amazing source of information on things. But when I went there I was stunned. It’s just so incredibly difficult to find out.. to piece together.. what to do. And who can you trust?
The truth is that we’re constantly being hit with waves and waves of self-serving, damaging advice, and non-stop, sophisticated marketing trying to get you to spend and invest your hard-earned money in a way that’s best for them.. not what’s best for you.
The good news is that solving this huge and extremely damaging problem is actually a fairly easy thing to do. As I said, the biggest problem is that nobody ever told you what to do.
I’ve been watching this happen for over 30 years now, watching it getting worse and worse. Finally, I couldn’t just watch anymore. I’ve had and have a great life.. a great marriage, great health and all the money I need, I so I decided to help.. to give back in thanks for all that I’ve been given.
For four years, from 2008 to 2012, I spent half of my time, and a lot of money to build a public service project to try to help everyone. I wrote a book, Money$mart, that was voted best personal finance book of the year in 2011.. been a guest on radio shows and such.
I was able to help thousands of people. But it was thousands, when it should’ve been millions. What I came to realize was that people needed to be able to sit down, face to face, and get a clear, thorough explanation of what to do.
So that’s what I decided to build. It’s a program of 7 on-line video courses. 7 subjects. The videos run about 35 to 45 minutes each, include all of the supporting tools and notes you’ll ever need, and are 100% free.. no catches whatsoever. Nothing more is needed except for you to go out and do it.
When you do, I’m confident it will turn out to be one of the best things you’ve ever done in your life.