For what it’s worth I thought I’d share my thoughts.
As background, you should know that, as a hired gun stock investor from 1990 to 2000, I was able to both invest people’s money very successfully and also to call every major move of the stock and real estate markets from 1990 to 2008. Since then, however, I have been completely unable to do so and the reason as I see it is that we have had a rigged market since 2008.
Over 75% of all stock purchases since 2008 have been companies buying back their own stock, often using debt.. printed money.. to do so.
Lately, I believe I’m beginning to be able to call things again, as since Jan 1st I’m up 9% while the S&P is down 29%.. a 38% difference.
I believe we are facing a greater than 50% probability that we are entering no less than a depression.. a very bad thing for the stock market, the real estate market and, most importantly, for people’s jobs and lives.
Given this, I am and will be shorting. I’ve stuck to a huge position in gold, silver, and gold and silver miners stocks. The miner stocks, in particular, have been decimated.. down about 40%, YTD. I believe, however, that the reason is massive market rigging by the big banks and the government to suppress the prices of those metals as they would otherwise undermine their interests. I do believe, however, that time is running out for them and when it does that gold and silver will skyrocket.